A team photo, an eye-catching sum, prestigious investors: for years, a funding round served as a certificate of success for startups. But one question changes how a press release should be read: who will be able to turn their shares into cash, when and on what terms? Looking ahead to September 2026, this is the lens through which venture capital should be examined. This analysis draws on developments documented through 2025; the potential trends outlined for 2026 remain prospects, not events taken for granted.
The headline price is not cash in hand
Raising funds primarily means selling a portion of the equity to finance the business. The money generally goes onto the company’s balance sheet; it does not automatically pay out founders, employees or earlier investors. The announced valuation derives from the price negotiated for newly issued securities. It is neither a firm offer for the entire company nor a guarantee that every shareholder will receive their proportionate share of that amount.
This distinction became more pronounced after the euphoria of 2020 and 2021. Rising interest rates from 2022 onward, the decline in initial public offerings and greater caution among acquirers made exits more difficult. Some companies continued to grow without recovering the valuation multiples of their last funding round. Others chose to cut spending or negotiate insider-led transactions rather than announce a lower valuation.
A startup can therefore remain a unicorn on paper while offering its shareholders few prospects for liquidity. Conversely, a less glamorous company may generate cash, find a buyer and distribute tangible sale proceeds. Financial success cannot be measured solely by the price of the latest round.
Secondary sales: selling without waiting for the big exit
A secondary sale allows an existing shareholder to sell their securities to another investor. Unlike a capital increase, it generally brings no fresh money into the company. It may take place during a funding round, as part of a transaction organized for employees or through a deal between investors. The same press release can therefore encompass two distinct realities: financing growth and allowing certain holders to exit.
Private companies such as SpaceX and Stripe organized or facilitated transactions that provided liquidity to securities holders, including employees, before 2026. These examples do not mean that every startup has an active market for its shares. They nevertheless illustrate a shift: waiting for an initial public offering is no longer the only conceivable way to monetize a stake.
For a founder, selling a small portion of their shares can ease personal financial pressure and allow them to continue pursuing a risky project. For an employee who has been with the company for several years, it can help fund a home purchase or diversify savings that are overly tied to their employer. But such transactions often remain selective: eligibility, volumes, prices and timing may be strictly controlled.
Multiple prices for the same company
The secondary market provides a useful signal, not an absolute truth. A buyer may demand a discount because the securities are difficult to resell, the available information is limited or their transfer requires approval. An urgent sale tells a different story from a transaction open to many investors. And a price observed for a small number of shares does not necessarily establish a valuation for all the equity.
Above all, the rights attached to the securities need to be examined. Professional investors often hold preferred shares, notably with liquidation preferences. In a sale, these clauses can give them priority in the allocation of proceeds. The common shares held by founders and employees do not necessarily offer the same protections. Two stakes representing the same percentage of equity can therefore produce very different outcomes.
Consider a company sold for less than its latest funding round suggested it was worth. Depending on the amounts invested and the terms negotiated, shareholders with priority rights may recover most of the available proceeds. The others then receive far less than expected. Without knowing the debt, preferences and dilution, multiplying an ownership percentage by the headline valuation remains a misleading calculation.
Funds also have to return money
Venture capital funds invest on behalf of their backers, including institutional investors, companies and wealthy individuals. These investors expect actual distributions, not just upward accounting adjustments. When exits slow, money remains tied up for longer. This can limit investors’ ability or willingness to reinvest in new funds, indirectly making it harder for startups to secure financing.
One metric then gains importance: DPI, which measures distributions relative to the capital paid in by investors. It complements measures that incorporate the estimated value of the remaining portfolio. A young fund may legitimately have made few distributions; an older fund must explain how its promising holdings will translate into realized returns. Timing matters almost as much as the expected multiple.
Portfolio sales and continuation funds offer other options. In the latter, certain assets are transferred to a new vehicle, allowing some investors to exit and others to maintain their exposure for longer. These structures can resolve a timing mismatch. They also require close scrutiny of pricing, fees and conflicts of interest when the same manager is involved on both sides.
For employees, a promise to decipher
In recruitment, shares, options and BSPCE—French startup employee share warrants—are often presented as additional compensation that could become substantial. That potential exists, but it is not readily available salary. Vesting, exercise conditions, departure from the company, taxation and dilution can significantly change the outcome. The legal ability to hold securities does not guarantee that a buyer can be found.
Before assigning a personal value to this package, it is worth asking specific questions:
- What percentage of the equity does it represent on a fully diluted basis?
- What costs must be paid to exercise the rights, and within what time frame?
- Is there a liquidity policy, or merely a possibility?
- Which categories of shareholders will be paid first in a sale?
A transparent company cannot promise an exit. It can, however, explain the rules and clearly distinguish between theoretical value, contractual terms and money that is actually accessible.
Telling a different performance story
Assessing a startup therefore requires weighing growth, margins, cash burn and its ability to raise financing alongside a credible map of potential exits. Which acquirers might be interested? Would an initial public offering suit its profile? Can it become profitable without another round? A recent secondary sale provides an additional clue, as long as it is clear who sold and which securities changed hands.
What next? For late 2026 and beyond, the scenario to watch would be more organized liquidity, but with uneven access. Sought-after companies could offer more frequent private sale windows, while others would remain dependent on an acquisition or an operational turnaround. Real progress would mean telling the success story without confusing three things: the money raised by the company, its negotiated value and the money actually received by those who took the risk.